RL360 - J.P. Morgan - Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2022

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J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT - Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2022

Assessing Recession Risk




  • Our central scenario is that we avoid a severe global downturn thanks in large part to fiscal support, and a more gradual pace of tightening by the central banks in the second half of the year. With major markets having already experienced double-digit declines, significant further downside for risk assets is not our base case.
  • In line with this central macro scenario, corporate earnings across developed markets should grow modestly in 2022, albeit by much less than current expectations, and margin resilience will be key to share price performance.
  • After a difficult start to the year the risks to government bond prices are now more evenly balanced and bonds can now offer some portfolio diversification in the more extreme negative scenarios.
  • Value’s out performance of growth may continue if economic activity proves resilient to higher commodity prices and interest rates.
  • Until inflation subsides investors will remain concerned about stagflation. Alternatives such as core infrastructure and real estate, and stocks that offer resilient high dividends, are relatively attractive in this challenging backdrop.


Download the full outlook 



Important Information:


The Market Insights programme provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the programme explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions. For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFIR requirements specifically related to investment research. 


Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. 


This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.


Image source: Getty Images


Market Strategists

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 2022

Please note that these are the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management and should not be interpreted as the views of RL360.

360 fund links

A range of J.P. Morgan Asset Management can be accessed through our guided architecture products Regular Savings Plan, Regular Savings Plan Malaysia, Oracle, Paragon, Quantum, Quantum Malaysia, LifePlan, LifePlan Lebanon, Protected Lifestyle and Protected Lifestyle Lebanon, and also through our PIMS portfolio bond.